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wtorek, 10 maja 2011

Znalezione w internecie: jednolite zasady zabijają postęp

Dzisiaj chciałbym polecić Czytelnikom bloga wywiad, którego udzielił niedawno Obserwatorowi Finansowemu prof. Robert Fogel, ekonomista i historyk, laureat Nagrody Nobla za nowatorskie połączenie tych dziedzin.

Prof. Fogel podzielił się kilkoma ciekawymi spostrzeżeniami natury systemowej, które w zasadniczy sposób przeciwstawiają się europejskim dążeniom do ujednolicenia / harmonizacji prawa i rynku wewnętrznego. W ocenie ekonomisty - jednolite, sztywne ramy Unii Europejskiej zabijają innowacyjność. W takich okolicznościach bowiem:

Rynek nie ma motywacji ani możliwości do wypróbowywania nowych rozwiązań, nie można wypróbować skuteczniejszych modeli.”

Jako przykład zgubnej tendencji ujednolicania UE, prof. Fogel wskazał na dążenie do likwidacji wewnętrznej konkurencji podatkowej w ramach Wspólnoty. Zdaniem noblisty: 

Politycy UE powinni wręcz zachęcać państwa do eksperymentowania z opodatkowaniem. Tylko dzięki konkurencji i eksperymentom można znaleźć taki model podatkowy, który sprzyja wzrostowi gospodarczemu.”

Diagnoza gospodarcza współczesnego świata według prof. Fogela jest brutalna: kunkurencyjność Chin tkwi w taniej sile roboczej, natomiast siłą USA jest drenaż mózgów. Europa na tym tle umiera ze starości.

Czy w takiej sytuacji jest jakaś szansa dla UE? “Innowacyjność, postęp technologiczny – na tym powinniście skoncentrować swoje siły. To jedyna droga, by załagodzić skutki niekorzystnych zmian demograficznych, które zabijają konkurencyjność UE.” - radzi prof. Fogel.

A Wy co myślicie na powyższy temat? Zapraszam do dyskusji w komentarzach.

Źródło: Obserwator Finansowy

czwartek, 10 lutego 2011

Global market overview - issue 2011/5

World stock markets strengthened last week as corporate earnings and manufacturing expansion on both sides of the Atlantic eclipsed unrest in Egypt. 

Stocks in Emerging Europe also rose, with the top performance from Bulgarian SOFIX (+5.2%) which benefi tted from shares in investment holding company Chimimport AD (+9.5%) - the only Bulgarian stock included in the regional gauge SETX (South-Eastern European Traded Index).

The Greek market was up 4% last week on the back of a more positive outlook on the IMF and EU granting an extension on its loans. Turkey, meanwhile, recovered to finish up 5%, despite worries regarding its monetary policy, as confidence rose that a worst-case scenario in Egypt could be avoided. The market in Cyprus was slightly negative.

Strong performances from oil and gas stocks were behind a 2.3% Russian stock market gain over the week. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian equity market outperformed again last week on the back of good corporate news. During the week, the UX index surged 5.9%, but stocks traded on foreign markets underperformed, mainly on the back of a mixed performance in the agriculture sector.

The Egyptian market remained closed for the entire trading week as anti-government protests continued, although it is expected to open next week. Other markets in the region saw panic selling, beginning with heavy sell-offs on the first trading day of the week, including a 5% drop on the S&P Saudi index. But markets managed to subsequently bounce back from weekly lows as investors saw the sell-off as an opportunity to raise their exposure to the market.

Release of PMI numbers from China did not restore investor confidence and Asian countries remained lacklustre while several bourses were closed for Chinese New Year celebrations. The Asean40 Index remained flat, up a mere 0.6% w-o-w, with minimal gains.

In India, the Sensex and Nifty fell over the week, dipping 388 points (-2.11%) and 116 points (-2.11%) to close at 18,008 and 5,396 respectively. For the week ending Jan 21 food Inflation was 17.05% and the fuel price index climbed to 11.61%.

The Pakistan KSE100TM index remained under pressure during the first three trading sessions of the week on the back of pre-emptive selling by local investors, despite the central bank going against expectations and keeping its discount rate unchanged at 14%. Market sentiment improved in the later part of the week on encouraging macro and political news. In its fourth Monetary Policy statement for FY11 the central bank opted to keep its policy rate intact at 14%, citing a fall in government borrowing, a surplus current account balance in 1HFY11 and optimism on the fiscal front. At the same time it raised its inflation forecast to 15-16%, and stressed the need to limit fi scal slippages.

Latin American markets recorded a slight rise over the week, up just 0.4%, amid mixed performance around the region. Peru was the best performer, adding 3.5%, followed by Mexico, which grew 2.6%. Meanwhile, Chilean stocks were up slightly, appreciating 0.3%, but Brazilian stocks, which make up more than two-thirds of the Latin American index, fell 1.3%, despite being buoyed by heavyweight Petrobras which rose 4.1% over the week. Brazil's financial services companies underperformed amid concerns the government could limit credit or impose additional interest rate hikes.

Source: SFM World Funds

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czwartek, 3 lutego 2011

Global market overview - issue 2011/4

Last week markets were dominated by one event, the dramatic events that took place in Egypt. The market there fell 16% before closing and surely everybody is watching the developments via the news. 

Equity markets fell sharply on Friday following speculation that the EU is considering a "default by stealth" for Greek sovereign debt by allowing Greece to repurchase its bonds from the European Central Bank at a 25% discount to their nominal value using funds borrowed from the European Financial Stability Fund. This would effectively result in the ECB taking a haircut on Greek sovereign debt rather than external creditors. On the positive side of the ledger, equity mutual funds in the US saw their biggest weekly inflow since May 2009 in the second week of January, according to fi gures from the Investment Company Institute.

Greek and Cyprus markets continued to recover rising by around 3,5%. On the other hand the Turkish stock market was partly hit by the Egyptian crisis losing around 4%.

The China A-share market rebounded this week, with the CSI 300 index up by 1.8%. Telecommunication services and industrials surged by 7.1% and 4.6% respectively. However, banks and property developers underperformed due to the third round of anti-speculative property measures announced on January 27 and the property tax trials which kicked off in Shanghai and Chongqing on January 28.

India Sensex and Nifty declined by 612 points (-3.22%) and 184 points (-3.24%) to close at 18,396 and 5,512 respectively. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) increased the benchmark interest rate to 2 year high and signalled further gains in borrowing costs as it raised the inflation forecast. The RBI lifted the repo rate to 6.5 % from 6.25 % and increased the reverse repo rate to 5.5 % from 5.25 %. The move will buttress the government's efforts to cool inflation after Prime Minister Manmohan Singh unveiled plans to reduce food prices by importing onions from Pakistan and keeping a ban on exports of lentils and edible oils.

The Pakistan benchmark KSE100TM index remained fl at last week at 12,463. The average daily volume fell by 50% to 117mn shares. The monetary policy announcement is due on Saturday 29th where analysts expect another 50bps hike in the policy rate

The Latin American markets depreciated 2.9% last week. Brazil was the worst performer of the region, falling 3.4%, as investors reacted to concerns that the Brazilian government could act to cool the economy by constraining credit growth or reign in infl ation with further interest rate hikes. In Brazil, the stocks that slipped the most were in the infl ation-sensitive construction and homebuilding sectors

The Russian RTS index closed the week fl at, despite a series of negative news stories shaking market sentiment. The beginning of the week was marked by Monday's terrorist attack at Domodedovo airport, which, however, left a relatively minor impact on market performance over the days following the attack. The market was also negatively aff ected by OPEC comments that quotas could be raised, Chinese proposals to fi ght infl ation, disappointing US macro data, as well as the lowering of S&P's credit rating for Japan. The Egyptian turmoil is having a mixed impact on the markets – on one hand, boosting the oil price, which is supportive for Russian and Central Asian equities, while on the other – reducing overall risk appetite, which is negative for the region as a whole.

Source: SFM World Funds

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środa, 26 stycznia 2011

Global market overview - issue 2011/3

World stock markets showed no clear trend last week, when speculation that European leaders will increase their efforts to contain the region's debt crisis was off set by fears of further tightening in China.

Most Asian markets slipped into the red on Monday as the region became anxious in anticipation of more tightening measures from China. The central bank went on to announce further measures as an attempt to cool down the economy from overheating and place a slowdown on inflation. Thereafter, Asian markets managed to inch higher, fuelled by rising oil prices and a positive close on Wall Street. The move was in line with the latest trend of moving away from U.S. and European markets and into Asian markets, as investors begin looking for safer options to invest their money. Unfortunately, sentiments on China continue to drag confidence as investors remained worried on a possible third rate hike since October, as the Chinese government attempts to manage inflation.

The China A-share market started lower after last Friday's required reserve ratio hike, then rebounded in the middle of the week, but eventually gave ground amid concerns over potential tightening measures in view of stronger-than-expected macro data of the fourth quarter. The CSI 300 index slid 3.5%. In regard of sector performance, industrial and utilities outperformed, while healthcare, one of the top performers in 2010, experienced a continuing valuation correction and plummeted by 5.6%.

Last week the Greek and Cyprus markets continued their recovery registering gains over 5%. On the other hand, both the Egyptian and Turkish markets retreated by more than 5%. Egypt retreated as investors became worried that the Tunisian events might spread to Egypt as well and Turkey due to worries about the interest rate policy followed by the Turkish Central Bank. This week the performance of the markets will revolve around economic news coming out and any developments regarding the credit crisis.

Russian equities showed inexpressive performance, with the RTS index adding 0.8%. The week was started on a strong note, with the positive sentiment aided by the news on Rosneft's deal with BP. Later in the week, the market sentiment was undermined by weaker than expected US housing data and worries about China's potential monetary tightening. For the week ending Jan 19, EPFR reported total net flows into Russian equities spiking to USD741m. The outstanding net fl ows received by Russia-dedicated funds clearly demonstrate that investors' interest in Russia is at its peak. History (since 2007) shows that such spikes in investor activity are usually followed by negative performance of the MSCI Russia index over the coming one to three weeks.

The Latin American markets depreciated by 1.9% last week. The worst performing market was Peru which decreased by 3.3%. In the rest of the region, Brazil, Chile, Mexico and Colombia decreased by 2.1%, 1.4%, 1.4% and 1.2%, respectively. The underperformance of Peru was driven by the metal ore company Buenaventura (36.78% of MSCI Peru), which declined 6.8%. However, the utilities sector bounced back with Edegel increasing 10.3% versus a decline of 10.4% last week.

Post the recent sharp decline it was a week of consolidation for Indian equities as food inflation moderated for the second week in a row in the early part of January after spiking to nearly a two-year peak in late December.

Source: SFM World Funds

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sobota, 22 stycznia 2011

Global market overview - issue 2011/2

World stock markets prolonged their upward trajectory last week, helped by successful placements of Portugal, Spanish and Italian debt as well as a successful start to the 4Q2010 corporate earnings season.

Last week the Greek and Cyprus markets strongly rebounded after touching fresh lows. The Turkish and Egyptian markets were relatively flat. In Egypt market sentiment will depend on how markets interpret the change in leadership in Tunisia that some people are arguing will also aff ect other countries in the region with similar political systems.

Russian equities performed impressively with the RTS gaining 5.6% as rising oil prices continues to lift confi dence in Russia's economy. One of the top stories during the week was the Rosneft – BP equity swap (9.5% stake in Rosneft – 5% in BP). This deal looks pretty interesting for Rosneft: JV (67% Rosneft/ 33% BP) is to explore three Russian Arctic off shore license areas with total resources of 36bn bbls of crude oil. Tax breaks for these fi elds are likely – an additional catalyst for further share upside and Rosneft gets access to off shore technology/expertise.

The Asean40 Index started the week lower by 2%, pushed by continued worries in the Eurozone, as Portugal came under pressure to accept a rescue package to ensure the prevention of contagion to other European countries. Asian markets began to inch higher as worries were diminished by Japan's commitment to subscribe to European bonds to help fund the Irish bailout. As the week progressed, Bank of Korea surprised markets with a 25bps rate hike to 2.75% in an attempt to tame infl ation but fortunately, the news was already priced in by investors.

The China A share market pulled back this week on concerns over domestic infl ation. The CSI 300 index retreated by 2.4%. In terms of sector performance, telecommunication services and fi nancials outperformed while materials, information technology and healthcare lagged. Among the most important news of the week were the new plans of the Chinese government regarding the Green Energy sector. China plans to invest about 4 trillion Yuan (USD605 billion) to build a smart grid system in the nation over the next decade. The investment is partly intended to help grid companies increase their capability to absorb a greater amount of clean energy electricity. Moreover, according to the Ministry of Science and Technology, China will raise its total installed wind capacity to 100 gigawatts by 2015, up from an estimated 40 gigawatts in 2010. Finally, the Asian nation expects its total solar capacity to be 5 gigawatts by 2015, compared to 1 gigawatt last year.

Indian equities extended losses from last week due to concerns about rising inflation and its impact on interest rates along with FII outfl ows. The benchmark sensex and nifty declined by 831 points (-4.22%) and 250 points (-4.23%) to close at 18860 and 5655 respectively. Declines were broad-based and all sector indices closed in the red. Those that are rate sensitive - capital goods, real estate and banking stocks - were the top decliners while FMCG stocks outperformed. Rising global commodity prices can be a problem for the economy and infl ationary trends. Any sharp rise from current levels, especially energy prices, will impact the economy due to India's dependence on energy imports.

The Latin American markets appreciated by 0.9% last week. The best performing markets were Brazil, which increased by 1.5% and Chile, which increased by 0.9%. In the rest of the region, Peru, Mexico and Colombia decreased by 2.7%, 0.7% and 0.2%, respectively. In Brazil, the best performers were utilities and telecommunication companies.

Source: SFM World Funds

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piątek, 14 stycznia 2011

Global market overview - issue 2011/1

World stock markets experienced a nice Christmas rally within the reported period (17 Dec 2010 – 7 Jan 2011), reflecting more confidence in the macro picture and a generally bullish equity outlook for 2011.

Property stocks in China outperformed strongly, due to strong home sales volume and potential delays to the introduction of a property tax, although policymakers reiterated their efforts to keep average home selling prices in check in 2011. In contrast, defensive names, such as telecommunication services, healthcare and consumer staples, while ending in black, lagged the market. China's manufacturing PMI came in at 53.9% in December, marking the 22nd consecutive month of expansion since March 2009, although the number was 1.3 ppts lower than last month. 

Regional markets continued to inch higher but Australia fell lower as Queensland was hit by massive floods which it expected to persist throughout the month.

In Thailand, core infl ation in December came in above expectations at 1.4% y-o-y while headline inflation was benign at 3% y-o-y. This means that the Monetary Policy Committee will most likely raise rates in mid-January.

India's key benchmark indices tumbled after scaling seven week highs early in the week as rising fears of an interest rate hike by the central bank at a policy review meeting scheduled later this month weighed on investor sentiment.

During the last three weeks, December 17th, 2010 to January 7th, 2011, the Latin American markets appreciated by 3.4%. The best performing market was Brazil - the performance was driven by commodities related companies.

The Pakistan stock market swallowed volatility in local politics, the break-up of ruling coalition and the highest profile assassination since Benazir Bhutto to close up 3% last week at 12,389 points level. Major reasons attributed to the rise are the increase in fertilizer prices, rumours of a major oil & gas discovery and increased market participation by local institutional investors. The political noise intensifi ed last week when a key government ally decided to sit on the opposition benches.

Last week the performance of the Greek and Cyprus markets was negative due to renewed fears about the European Bond market and Greece in particular. On the other hand the performance of the Egyptian and Turkish markets was flat to positive.

Region-wise, Latin America was the best performer with Argentina and Jamaica leading, while Africa demonstrated the worst performance, as following the political upheaval in the Ivory Coast, it did not pay a coupon on its eurobond, facing a potential default.

piątek, 8 października 2010

Odyseusz polskiej gospodarki

Wczoraj w Sejmie odbyło się pierwsze czytanie dotyczące ustawy budżetowej. Lektura sprawozdania stenograficznego to nie tylko ciekawy rys finansowy budżetu państwa, ale również barwny język posłów. Wczoraj w mitologiczne nuty uderzył Minister Finansów – głosy z Sali sejmowej bezcenne!
 
Stosownie do danych Ministra Finansów: „Deficyt na 2011 r., który planujemy w tym budżecie, nie przekroczy 40 200 mln zł, czyli będzie o 12 mld zł niższy niż ten dozwolony w budżecie na obecny rok. W kolejnych latach deficyt budżetu państwa będzie sukcesywnie malał. Maleć będzie także deficyt sektora finansów publicznych, całego sektora, łącznie z jednostkami samorządu terytorialnego, ze wszystkimi funduszami i agencjami państwowymi. W roku 2011, według naszej krajowej definicji, deficyt sektora finansów publicznych wynosić będzie 5% PKB, dochodu narodowego, w 2012 r. – 2,8% dochodu narodowego, a w 2013 r. 2,4% PKB. Według definicji unijnej, która jest nieco szersza niż definicja polska, deficyt sektora finansów publicznych w 2011 r. powinien wynosić 6,5% PKB, w 2012 r. – 4,5% PKB, a w 2013 r. – 2,9% PKB.”
 
Polska lokomotywą Europy
 
Minister Finansów na trybunie sejmowej zapewniał, że „Już dzisiaj, na początku października, możemy powiedzieć – choć może świadomość tego jest nieco mniejsza – że w 2010 r. Polska także będzie należała do ścisłej, najściślejszej czołówki państw Unii Europejskiej, jeśli chodzi o wzrost gospodarczy. Będzie bowiem na drugim miejscu. Komisja Europejska przewiduje, że w Polsce wzrost gospodarczy w tym roku osiągnie 3,4%. Na pierwszym miejscu będzie Szwecja z 4%, więc będziemy li tylko na drugim miejscu, a razem z nami będą Niemcy, uznawane za wielką lokomotywę ekonomiczną naszego kontynentu. Według prognoz Komisji Europejskiej przeciętny wzrost gospodarczy w całej Unii stanowić będzie 1,8%, czyli wzrost w Polsce będzie prawie dwa razy wyższy niż przeciętna unijna.”
 
Nie chcę, ale muszę
 
„Prawdziwy problem gospodarki polskiej to tzw. deficyt strukturalny, który wynika z błędnej polityki z lat 2006–2007, kiedy w tej Izbie przegłosowano obniżenie dochodów publicznych o wartości 40 mld zł w 2010 r., a także skonstruowano budżety, które zwiększyły wydatki o ponad 52 mld zł. Stopniowe wyeliminowanie tego deficytu strukturalnego wymaga twardej polityki wydatkowej państwa. I taką stosujemy od 2009 r.”
„W latach 2009–2010 trzymaliśmy się, już wtedy, tzw. reguły wydatkowej, którą będziemy wprowadzali w nowelizacji ustawy o finansach publicznych, która będzie przedstawiona najpóźniej za kilka tygodni w Sejmie. Reguła ta oznacza, że wzrost wydatków elastycznych, czyli niesztywnych, czyli niezdeterminowanych ustawowo, plus wzrost wydatków – nowe wydatki sztywne – nie może przekroczyć 1% plus inflacja przewidywana na następny rok. Trzymaliśmy się tej reguły w 2009 i 2010 r., mimo że jeszcze nie obowiązywała, i trzymamy się tej reguły także w tym budżecie, który dzisiaj przedstawiam Wysokiej Izbie, mimo że ta reguła formalnoprawnie jeszcze nie obowiązuje.”
 
„W latach 2009, 2010 i 2011 wykorzystaliśmy zaledwie w jednej trzeciej maksymalny pułap wzrostu wydatków elastycznych, na które ta reguła pozwala. Ale oszczędności wynikające z tej reguły i z dodatkowych działań, które podejmujemy już w tym budżecie, dają skutki tylko narastająco. Dlatego musieliśmy kupić czas, podwyższając VAT o 1%. Pan premier już mówił, jak trudna była decyzja, żeby się na taki krok zdecydować. Mogę powiedzieć, że dla mnie też była to niezmiernie trudna decyzja – żeby panu premierowi zaproponować krok, który przecież był i jest sprzeczny z naszą zasadniczą filozofią. Jest jednak jedna sprawa jeszcze ważniejsza od obniżenia podatków – stabilność finansów publicznych, naprawianie szkód wynikających z kryzysu, ale także z nieodpowiedzialnej polityki poprzedniego rządu. Dlatego musieliśmy ten krok podjąć, przyjmując, że jest to zło konieczne.”
 
Poetycki język Jacka Rostowskiego
 
„Kiedy porównujemy się z takimi krajami, które tych pieniędzy nie odłożyły, tylko zadłużyły się i wydały te pieniądze, to widać, że Polska jest pracowitą mrówką, a Niemcy, Holandia, Francja są…(Poseł Marek Suski: Słoniami.) …niefrasobliwymi konikami polnymi.”
 
„Dzisiaj musimy rozpocząć 3-letni proces konsolidacji finansów publicznych bez popełnienia kolejnego, odwrotnego błędu, czyli zbyt raptownego, szokowego cięcia wydatków. Uniknęliśmy Scylli długu, teraz musimy uniknąć Charybdy zbędnych, szokowych ruchów. I jestem przekonany, że tak jak Odyseuszowi uda się nam wprowadzić okręt polskiej gospodarki na otwarte, spokojne morza. Dziękuję państwu. (Poseł Henryk Kowalczyk: I zatonąć.)”
 
Źródło: Sejm

niedziela, 11 lipca 2010

Światowy kryzys finansowy jeszcze się nie skończył

Prof. Steve Keen, University of Western Sydney
 
Nadmierny poziom prywatnego zadłużenia, fundamentalna przyczyna kryzysu, zmniejsza się bardzo powoli. W Kongresie USA w ramach obrad specjalnej komisji ds. redukcji deficytu odbywa się debata na temat tego, w jakim stadium kryzysu się znajdujemy. Naukowcy, którzy kryzys przewidzieli, są przekonani, że na ogłaszanie końca kryzysu o wiele za wcześnie.
 
Czytaj dalej: Obserwator Finansowy

Spain vs the Netherlands - statistical country profiles


Source: Eurostat

poniedziałek, 28 czerwca 2010

The Third Depression

Paul Krugman, Commentary, NY Times:

"We are now, I fear, in the early stages of a third depression. It will probably look more like the Long Depression than the much more severe Great Depression. But the cost — to the world economy and, above all, to the millions of lives blighted by the absence of jobs — will nonetheless be immense."

Source: Economist's View

niedziela, 13 czerwca 2010

Mało znane wskaźniki

Tomasz Symonowicz: "Bardziej jako ciekawostkę i pokazanie pewnych rynkowych tendencji, chciałbym przybliżyć 4 interesujące i mało znane wskaźniki nastrojów. Wszystkie one są wyliczane co miesiąc i podawane przez Międzynarodowe Centrum ds. Finansów w Yale School of Management. Ich patronem jest profesor Robert J. Shiller, którego zasługi dla rynku giełdowego i finansów behawioralnych długo można by wymieniać, dość wspomnieć [...]"

środa, 19 maja 2010

Czy można ocalić euro?

Can the Euro be Saved? by Joseph E. Stiglitz

NEW YORK – The Greek financial crisis has put the very survival of the euro at stake.  At the euro's creation, many worried about its long-run viability. When everything went well, these worries were forgotten. But the question of how adjustments would be made if part of the eurozone were hit by a strong adverse shock lingered. Fixing the exchange rate and delegating monetary policy to the European Central Bank eliminated two primary means by which national governments stimulate their economies to avoid recession. What could replace them?

Further reading: Project Syndicate

wtorek, 18 maja 2010

Widmo kryzysu krąży nad Europą

Europe's Dominos of Doom by Janis A. Emmanouilidis
 
BRUSSELS – The fear of contagion has spread over Europe. Many see Greece as the potential first domino to fall in a scenario that runs as follows: the Greek austerity measures do not suffice, the debt crisis deepens, and the risk of a sovereign default spreads to other European economies. As the Greek domino falls, countries like Portugal, Spain, or Italy start tumbling, and a small economy's crisis turns into a major European calamity...
 

czwartek, 22 kwietnia 2010

I gdzie ta konwergencja?

Zblizanie ekoniczne panstw Unii Europejskiej mialo znalezc odwierciedlenie zarówno w porównywalnym poziomie dlugoterminowych stóp procentowych (konwergencja nominalna), jak równiez w zblizonym poziomie PKB per capita (konwergencja realna). Na przestrzeni ostatnich lat, powyzsze wskazniki makroekonomiczne rzeczywiscie wykazywaly tendencje do unifikacji na poziomie wspólnotowym. Nie mniej jednak, miniony (podobno) swiatowy kryzys gospodarczy przekreslil ów pozytywny trend.

Europa dwóch predkosci ponownie dala o sobie znac. Na jednym biegunie potencjalu gospodarczego wystepuja Niemcy, drugiemu obozowi przewodzi zas Grecja. Dywergencja rozwoju gospodarczego poszczególnych krajów UE wynikac moze z diametralnie odmiennej konkurencyjnosci ich rynków wewnetrznych. O ile Niemcy stac bylo na znaczne ograniczenie wzrotu jednostkowych kosztów pracy, a przez to wyhamowac inflacje, o tyle kraje takie jak Grecja przegrywaly na polu m.in. wymiany handlowej na skutek szybko rosnacej inflacji napedzanej przez nieefektywny rynek pracy. Dzialo sie tak w szczególnosci z powodu róznic w poziomach realnego kursu walutowego, na który wplywala - przy niezmienionym w poszczególnych krajach unii walutowej poziomie nominalnego kursu walutego - wlasnie inflacja.

niedziela, 28 lutego 2010

Makroekonomia XXI wieku

What are the implications of combining Keynesian ideas with Walrasian general equilibrium theory in a way that does not assume sticky prices?

Roger E. A. Farmer
Professor and Chair of the Economics Department at UCLA

Czytaj dalej: Vox UE, Part 1 - Theory, Part 2 - Policy

wtorek, 23 lutego 2010

Kierunek zmian efektywności pracy

When horse-power became cheaper than human-power, horse labor replaced human labor. When steam-power in turn became cheaper than horse-power, horses in turn became replaced. The demand for horse labor rose, then fell. If the population of horses had kept growing at the same rate as the population of humans, most horses now would be redundant, with just a small elite minority of horses employed in very special jobs. Improving technology did in fact drastically reduce the demand for horse labor. If Kurt Vonnegut's novel had been about horses, it would have been a historical novel, not science fiction.
 
It happened to horses; why couldn't it happen to humans?
 
Czytaj dalej: Economist's View

niedziela, 21 lutego 2010

Ciemny wiek makroekonomii

Midway through his standing-room-only lecture at MIT on Friday,... Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman PhD '77 took a brief detour into world history — specifically to the Dark Ages.

It was a period, Krugman suggested, that was especially dismal not merely due to, say, rampant barbarism, but because it constituted an intellectual reversal: "In the Dark Ages, people forgot what the Greeks and Romans had learned."

Żródło: Economist's View

czwartek, 11 lutego 2010

Kto zapłaci za słabą walutę Chin?

Who pays for the weak renminbi? by Arvind Subramanian

"What is the consequence of China’s exchange rate policy? This column argues that focusing on global imbalances clouds the real costs, and that China’s exchange rate regime is a mercantilist trade policy whose costs are mainly borne by other developing and emerging market countries."

Source: VoxEU

Kryzys w Dubaju i jego potencjalny wpływ na UE

WRITTEN QUESTION by Rodi Kratsa-Tsagaropoulou (PPE) to the Commission

Recently, the State investment company, Dubai World Group, announced a six-month suspension of its debt repayments, causing convulsions on stock exchanges and markets in the Middle East and worldwide and threatening the biggest State bankruptcy since Argentina in 2001. The Group, which until recently employed more than 50 000 staff in 100 cities worldwide, announced that it was in ‘constructive’ talks to restructure debt of 26 billion dollars, whereas international credit institutions estimate the Dubai government's debt to be some 100 billion dollars. At the same time, a recent report points out that the international business community's major problem in 2010 will be spiralling debt. A significant part of this debt consists of corporate bonds of companies in Russia and the United Arab Emirates. Several analysts stress the risk of similar events occurring in Shanghai and Mumbai owing to excessive spending and leverage.

1. Given that the Dubai World Group has significant investment holdings in the Member States of the Union and that numerous European companies, in particular banks, have investments in Dubai and the Middle East region, to what extent does the Commission consider that such crises may have an impact on the European economy? Which countries in the eurozone are particularly vulnerable to this crisis? Does it consider that there are inherent risks to European investments in the lack of corporate governance transparency in developing markets, such as Dubai?

2. What are the implications of the current crisis for concluding negotiations on a free trade agreement between the EU and the States of the Gulf Cooperation Council?

3. In the Commission's view, how can the nascent European Systemic Risk Board and the other European supervisory authorities protect the European economy against upheavals and regional economic crises in the developing and emerging economies?

ANSWER given by Mr Almunia on behalf of the Commission

1. The exposure of European banks to Dubai is not systemic for any Member State. EU banks exposure towards the United Emirates countries represents a very small share of their overall exposure. Therefore, it is not very likely that the Dubai crisis will have a significant impact on the European economy.

Total exposure towards the United Arab Emirates (UAE) of the banks reporting to the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) is about EUR 78 billion of which EUR 60 billion (76 % of the total) is held by EU‑27 banks. Among the largest European countries, the biggest exposure of banks towards the UEA is in the United Kingdom, followed by France and Germany, as their claims in the UEA amount to EUR 36.8 billion, EUR 8.3 billion and EUR 7.8 billion respectively. However, even for the United Kingdom, the most exposed Member, this amount does not represent any systemic risks, as it represents only 1 % of the United Kingdom's overall foreign banking exposure. Furthermore, the abovementioned data refer to the overall exposure towards the UAE and the European exposure towards Dubai World Group is even smaller.

The default of state-owned Dubai World Group has had consequences for the UAE public finances since the company required bail-out from public resources (mostly from the Abu Dhabi sovereign fund). Therefore, the debt crisis in Dubai has triggered concern over sovereign debt risk worldwide. After two years of worrying about mortgage and corporate risk, attention is now shifting to managing the risk of country defaults and bankruptcies of heavily indebted regional governments and city administrations. Although, it is important to note that Dubai's case is very particular and the overall exposure of European banks is not systemic in nature, the impact of the Dubai debt crisis on the financial markets in emerging economies could be non-negligible.

2. Currently negotiations are stalled. The last informal meeting between the EC and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) chief negotiators took place in summer 2009 in Brussels.

3. The establishment of the European Systemic Risk Board (ESRB) and the European Supervisory Authorities (ESAs) represents a robust reform of the EU supervisory architecture, thereby improving the resilience of the European financial system against external shocks. The ESRB will be responsible for identifying risks with a systemic dimension and preventing or mitigating their impact on the financial system within the EU. While its final objective will be to preserve financial stability within the Union, this will require assessing also potential risk arising from outside the Union, including developing and emerging economies. The significant integration of financial systems at the international level implies the ESRB will have to coordinate with international institutions, particularly the International Monetary Fund and the Financial Stability Board as well as the relevant bodies in third countries on matters related to macro-prudential oversight. The ESRB will also cooperate closely with the ESA responsible for micro-prudential supervision, as macro and micro supervision are difficult to disentangle. At their level, the ESAs will also coordinate with international organisations and supervisory authorities of third countries, and may assist in preparing equivalence decisions pertaining to supervisory regimes in third countries.

Źródło: Parlament Europejski

Restrukturyzacja Opla i zamknięcie zakładów w Antwerpii

PYTANIE USTNE na sesję pytań podczas sesji częściowej w lutym 2010 r. zgodnie z art. 116 Regulaminu skierowane w dniu 25 stycznia 2010 r. przez: Kathleen Van Brempt do Komisji

Dnia 21 stycznia 2010 r. kierownictwo Opla poinformowało o całkowitym zamknięciu zakładów w Antwerpii. Decyzja ta wpisuje się w plan restrukturyzacji Opla w Europie. Również w innych krajach przewiduje się zwolnienia, jednak nigdzie indziej nie zostanie zamknięta cała fabryka. Cieszę się, że Komisja jesienią 2009 r. przypomniała, że wsparcie oferowane przez państwa członkowskie musi spełniać warunki obowiązujące dla pomocy publicznej, a także wyraźnie opierać się na kryteriach ekonomicznych. Oznacza to między innymi, że pomoc ta nie wiąże się z utrzymywaniem działalności określonych oddziałów, ale że restrukturyzacja musi wpisywać się w przedłożony przez GM biznesplan. Czy GM przedstawił już Komisji taki biznesplan? Jakimi narzędziami dysponuje Komisja, aby móc zażądać takiego planu? Kiedy Komisja zamierza uzyskać wgląd do tego planu? W jaki sposób Komisja zamierza przestudiować ten plan, aby ocenić legalność ewentualnej pomocy publicznej na rzecz restrukturyzacji?

Źródło: Parlament Europejski