Znalezione w internecie: jednolite zasady zabijają postęp

Dzisiaj chciałbym polecić Czytelnikom bloga wywiad, którego udzielił niedawno Obserwatorowi Finansowemu prof. Robert Fogel, ekonomista i historyk, laureat Nagrody Nobla za nowatorskie połączenie tych dziedzin.

Prof. Fogel podzielił się kilkoma ciekawymi spostrzeżeniami natury systemowej, które w zasadniczy sposób przeciwstawiają się europejskim dążeniom do ujednolicenia / harmonizacji prawa i rynku wewnętrznego. W ocenie ekonomisty - jednolite, sztywne ramy Unii Europejskiej zabijają innowacyjność. W takich okolicznościach bowiem:

“Rynek nie ma motywacji ani możliwości do wypróbowywania nowych rozwiązań, nie można wypróbować skuteczniejszych modeli.”

Jako przykład zgubnej tendencji ujednolicania UE, prof. Fogel wskazał na dążenie do likwidacji wewnętrznej konkurencji podatkowej w ramach Wspólnoty. Zdaniem noblisty: 

“Politycy UE powinni wręcz zachęcać państwa do eksperymentowania z opodatkowaniem. Tylko dzięki konkurencji i eksperymentom można znaleźć taki model podatkowy, który sprzyja wzrostowi gospodarczemu.”

Diagnoza gospodarcza współczesnego świata według prof. Fogela jest brutalna: kunkurencyjność Chin tkwi w taniej sile roboczej, natomiast siłą USA jest drenaż mózgów. Europa na tym tle umiera ze starości.

Czy w takiej sytuacji jest jakaś szansa dla UE? “Innowacyjność, postęp technologiczny – na tym powinniście skoncentrować swoje siły. To jedyna droga, by załagodzić skutki niekorzystnych zmian demograficznych, które zabijają konkurencyjność UE.” - radzi prof. Fogel.

A Wy co myślicie na powyższy temat? Zapraszam do dyskusji w komentarzach.

Źródło: Obserwator Finansowy

Global market overview - issue 2011/5

World stock markets strengthened last week as corporate earnings and manufacturing expansion on both sides of the Atlantic eclipsed unrest in Egypt. 

Stocks in Emerging Europe also rose, with the top performance from Bulgarian SOFIX (+5.2%) which benefi tted from shares in investment holding company Chimimport AD (+9.5%) - the only Bulgarian stock included in the regional gauge SETX (South-Eastern European Traded Index).

The Greek market was up 4% last week on the back of a more positive outlook on the IMF and EU granting an extension on its loans. Turkey, meanwhile, recovered to finish up 5%, despite worries regarding its monetary policy, as confidence rose that a worst-case scenario in Egypt could be avoided. The market in Cyprus was slightly negative.

Strong performances from oil and gas stocks were behind a 2.3% Russian stock market gain over the week. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian equity market outperformed again last week on the back of good corporate news. During the week, the UX index surged 5.9%, but stocks traded on foreign markets underperformed, mainly on the back of a mixed performance in the agriculture sector.

The Egyptian market remained closed for the entire trading week as anti-government protests continued, although it is expected to open next week. Other markets in the region saw panic selling, beginning with heavy sell-offs on the first trading day of the week, including a 5% drop on the S&P Saudi index. But markets managed to subsequently bounce back from weekly lows as investors saw the sell-off as an opportunity to raise their exposure to the market.

Release of PMI numbers from China did not restore investor confidence and Asian countries remained lacklustre while several bourses were closed for Chinese New Year celebrations. The Asean40 Index remained flat, up a mere 0.6% w-o-w, with minimal gains.

In India, the Sensex and Nifty fell over the week, dipping 388 points (-2.11%) and 116 points (-2.11%) to close at 18,008 and 5,396 respectively. For the week ending Jan 21 food Inflation was 17.05% and the fuel price index climbed to 11.61%.

The Pakistan KSE100TM index remained under pressure during the first three trading sessions of the week on the back of pre-emptive selling by local investors, despite the central bank going against expectations and keeping its discount rate unchanged at 14%. Market sentiment improved in the later part of the week on encouraging macro and political news. In its fourth Monetary Policy statement for FY11 the central bank opted to keep its policy rate intact at 14%, citing a fall in government borrowing, a surplus current account balance in 1HFY11 and optimism on the fiscal front. At the same time it raised its inflation forecast to 15-16%, and stressed the need to limit fi scal slippages.

Latin American markets recorded a slight rise over the week, up just 0.4%, amid mixed performance around the region. Peru was the best performer, adding 3.5%, followed by Mexico, which grew 2.6%. Meanwhile, Chilean stocks were up slightly, appreciating 0.3%, but Brazilian stocks, which make up more than two-thirds of the Latin American index, fell 1.3%, despite being buoyed by heavyweight Petrobras which rose 4.1% over the week. Brazil's financial services companies underperformed amid concerns the government could limit credit or impose additional interest rate hikes.

Source: SFM World Funds

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• Global market overview - issue 2011/4
• Global market overview - issue 2011/3
• Global market overview - issue 2011/2
• Global market overview - issue 2011/1

Global market overview - issue 2011/4

Last week markets were dominated by one event, the dramatic events that took place in Egypt. The market there fell 16% before closing and surely everybody is watching the developments via the news. 

Equity markets fell sharply on Friday following speculation that the EU is considering a "default by stealth" for Greek sovereign debt by allowing Greece to repurchase its bonds from the European Central Bank at a 25% discount to their nominal value using funds borrowed from the European Financial Stability Fund. This would effectively result in the ECB taking a haircut on Greek sovereign debt rather than external creditors. On the positive side of the ledger, equity mutual funds in the US saw their biggest weekly inflow since May 2009 in the second week of January, according to fi gures from the Investment Company Institute.

Greek and Cyprus markets continued to recover rising by around 3,5%. On the other hand the Turkish stock market was partly hit by the Egyptian crisis losing around 4%.

The China A-share market rebounded this week, with the CSI 300 index up by 1.8%. Telecommunication services and industrials surged by 7.1% and 4.6% respectively. However, banks and property developers underperformed due to the third round of anti-speculative property measures announced on January 27 and the property tax trials which kicked off in Shanghai and Chongqing on January 28.

India Sensex and Nifty declined by 612 points (-3.22%) and 184 points (-3.24%) to close at 18,396 and 5,512 respectively. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) increased the benchmark interest rate to 2 year high and signalled further gains in borrowing costs as it raised the inflation forecast. The RBI lifted the repo rate to 6.5 % from 6.25 % and increased the reverse repo rate to 5.5 % from 5.25 %. The move will buttress the government's efforts to cool inflation after Prime Minister Manmohan Singh unveiled plans to reduce food prices by importing onions from Pakistan and keeping a ban on exports of lentils and edible oils.

The Pakistan benchmark KSE100TM index remained fl at last week at 12,463. The average daily volume fell by 50% to 117mn shares. The monetary policy announcement is due on Saturday 29th where analysts expect another 50bps hike in the policy rate

The Latin American markets depreciated 2.9% last week. Brazil was the worst performer of the region, falling 3.4%, as investors reacted to concerns that the Brazilian government could act to cool the economy by constraining credit growth or reign in infl ation with further interest rate hikes. In Brazil, the stocks that slipped the most were in the infl ation-sensitive construction and homebuilding sectors

The Russian RTS index closed the week fl at, despite a series of negative news stories shaking market sentiment. The beginning of the week was marked by Monday's terrorist attack at Domodedovo airport, which, however, left a relatively minor impact on market performance over the days following the attack. The market was also negatively aff ected by OPEC comments that quotas could be raised, Chinese proposals to fi ght infl ation, disappointing US macro data, as well as the lowering of S&P's credit rating for Japan. The Egyptian turmoil is having a mixed impact on the markets – on one hand, boosting the oil price, which is supportive for Russian and Central Asian equities, while on the other – reducing overall risk appetite, which is negative for the region as a whole.

Source: SFM World Funds

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• Global market overview - issue 2011/3
• Global market overview - issue 2011/2
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Global market overview - issue 2011/3

World stock markets showed no clear trend last week, when speculation that European leaders will increase their efforts to contain the region's debt crisis was off set by fears of further tightening in China.

Most Asian markets slipped into the red on Monday as the region became anxious in anticipation of more tightening measures from China. The central bank went on to announce further measures as an attempt to cool down the economy from overheating and place a slowdown on inflation. Thereafter, Asian markets managed to inch higher, fuelled by rising oil prices and a positive close on Wall Street. The move was in line with the latest trend of moving away from U.S. and European markets and into Asian markets, as investors begin looking for safer options to invest their money. Unfortunately, sentiments on China continue to drag confidence as investors remained worried on a possible third rate hike since October, as the Chinese government attempts to manage inflation.

The China A-share market started lower after last Friday's required reserve ratio hike, then rebounded in the middle of the week, but eventually gave ground amid concerns over potential tightening measures in view of stronger-than-expected macro data of the fourth quarter. The CSI 300 index slid 3.5%. In regard of sector performance, industrial and utilities outperformed, while healthcare, one of the top performers in 2010, experienced a continuing valuation correction and plummeted by 5.6%.

Last week the Greek and Cyprus markets continued their recovery registering gains over 5%. On the other hand, both the Egyptian and Turkish markets retreated by more than 5%. Egypt retreated as investors became worried that the Tunisian events might spread to Egypt as well and Turkey due to worries about the interest rate policy followed by the Turkish Central Bank. This week the performance of the markets will revolve around economic news coming out and any developments regarding the credit crisis.

Russian equities showed inexpressive performance, with the RTS index adding 0.8%. The week was started on a strong note, with the positive sentiment aided by the news on Rosneft's deal with BP. Later in the week, the market sentiment was undermined by weaker than expected US housing data and worries about China's potential monetary tightening. For the week ending Jan 19, EPFR reported total net flows into Russian equities spiking to USD741m. The outstanding net fl ows received by Russia-dedicated funds clearly demonstrate that investors' interest in Russia is at its peak. History (since 2007) shows that such spikes in investor activity are usually followed by negative performance of the MSCI Russia index over the coming one to three weeks.

The Latin American markets depreciated by 1.9% last week. The worst performing market was Peru which decreased by 3.3%. In the rest of the region, Brazil, Chile, Mexico and Colombia decreased by 2.1%, 1.4%, 1.4% and 1.2%, respectively. The underperformance of Peru was driven by the metal ore company Buenaventura (36.78% of MSCI Peru), which declined 6.8%. However, the utilities sector bounced back with Edegel increasing 10.3% versus a decline of 10.4% last week.

Post the recent sharp decline it was a week of consolidation for Indian equities as food inflation moderated for the second week in a row in the early part of January after spiking to nearly a two-year peak in late December.

Source: SFM World Funds

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Global market overview - issue 2011/2

World stock markets prolonged their upward trajectory last week, helped by successful placements of Portugal, Spanish and Italian debt as well as a successful start to the 4Q2010 corporate earnings season.

Last week the Greek and Cyprus markets strongly rebounded after touching fresh lows. The Turkish and Egyptian markets were relatively flat. In Egypt market sentiment will depend on how markets interpret the change in leadership in Tunisia that some people are arguing will also aff ect other countries in the region with similar political systems.

Russian equities performed impressively with the RTS gaining 5.6% as rising oil prices continues to lift confi dence in Russia's economy. One of the top stories during the week was the Rosneft – BP equity swap (9.5% stake in Rosneft – 5% in BP). This deal looks pretty interesting for Rosneft: JV (67% Rosneft/ 33% BP) is to explore three Russian Arctic off shore license areas with total resources of 36bn bbls of crude oil. Tax breaks for these fi elds are likely – an additional catalyst for further share upside and Rosneft gets access to off shore technology/expertise.

The Asean40 Index started the week lower by 2%, pushed by continued worries in the Eurozone, as Portugal came under pressure to accept a rescue package to ensure the prevention of contagion to other European countries. Asian markets began to inch higher as worries were diminished by Japan's commitment to subscribe to European bonds to help fund the Irish bailout. As the week progressed, Bank of Korea surprised markets with a 25bps rate hike to 2.75% in an attempt to tame infl ation but fortunately, the news was already priced in by investors.

The China A share market pulled back this week on concerns over domestic infl ation. The CSI 300 index retreated by 2.4%. In terms of sector performance, telecommunication services and fi nancials outperformed while materials, information technology and healthcare lagged. Among the most important news of the week were the new plans of the Chinese government regarding the Green Energy sector. China plans to invest about 4 trillion Yuan (USD605 billion) to build a smart grid system in the nation over the next decade. The investment is partly intended to help grid companies increase their capability to absorb a greater amount of clean energy electricity. Moreover, according to the Ministry of Science and Technology, China will raise its total installed wind capacity to 100 gigawatts by 2015, up from an estimated 40 gigawatts in 2010. Finally, the Asian nation expects its total solar capacity to be 5 gigawatts by 2015, compared to 1 gigawatt last year.

Indian equities extended losses from last week due to concerns about rising inflation and its impact on interest rates along with FII outfl ows. The benchmark sensex and nifty declined by 831 points (-4.22%) and 250 points (-4.23%) to close at 18860 and 5655 respectively. Declines were broad-based and all sector indices closed in the red. Those that are rate sensitive - capital goods, real estate and banking stocks - were the top decliners while FMCG stocks outperformed. Rising global commodity prices can be a problem for the economy and infl ationary trends. Any sharp rise from current levels, especially energy prices, will impact the economy due to India's dependence on energy imports.

The Latin American markets appreciated by 0.9% last week. The best performing markets were Brazil, which increased by 1.5% and Chile, which increased by 0.9%. In the rest of the region, Peru, Mexico and Colombia decreased by 2.7%, 0.7% and 0.2%, respectively. In Brazil, the best performers were utilities and telecommunication companies.

Source: SFM World Funds

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• Global market overview - issue 2011/1

Global market overview - issue 2011/1

World stock markets experienced a nice Christmas rally within the reported period (17 Dec 2010 – 7 Jan 2011), reflecting more confidence in the macro picture and a generally bullish equity outlook for 2011.

Property stocks in China outperformed strongly, due to strong home sales volume and potential delays to the introduction of a property tax, although policymakers reiterated their efforts to keep average home selling prices in check in 2011. In contrast, defensive names, such as telecommunication services, healthcare and consumer staples, while ending in black, lagged the market. China's manufacturing PMI came in at 53.9% in December, marking the 22nd consecutive month of expansion since March 2009, although the number was 1.3 ppts lower than last month. 

Regional markets continued to inch higher but Australia fell lower as Queensland was hit by massive floods which it expected to persist throughout the month.

In Thailand, core infl ation in December came in above expectations at 1.4% y-o-y while headline inflation was benign at 3% y-o-y. This means that the Monetary Policy Committee will most likely raise rates in mid-January.

India's key benchmark indices tumbled after scaling seven week highs early in the week as rising fears of an interest rate hike by the central bank at a policy review meeting scheduled later this month weighed on investor sentiment.

During the last three weeks, December 17th, 2010 to January 7th, 2011, the Latin American markets appreciated by 3.4%. The best performing market was Brazil - the performance was driven by commodities related companies.

The Pakistan stock market swallowed volatility in local politics, the break-up of ruling coalition and the highest profile assassination since Benazir Bhutto to close up 3% last week at 12,389 points level. Major reasons attributed to the rise are the increase in fertilizer prices, rumours of a major oil & gas discovery and increased market participation by local institutional investors. The political noise intensifi ed last week when a key government ally decided to sit on the opposition benches.

Last week the performance of the Greek and Cyprus markets was negative due to renewed fears about the European Bond market and Greece in particular. On the other hand the performance of the Egyptian and Turkish markets was flat to positive.

Region-wise, Latin America was the best performer with Argentina and Jamaica leading, while Africa demonstrated the worst performance, as following the political upheaval in the Ivory Coast, it did not pay a coupon on its eurobond, facing a potential default.

Source: SFM World Funds