piątek, 14 stycznia 2011

Global market overview - issue 2011/1

World stock markets experienced a nice Christmas rally within the reported period (17 Dec 2010 – 7 Jan 2011), reflecting more confidence in the macro picture and a generally bullish equity outlook for 2011.

Property stocks in China outperformed strongly, due to strong home sales volume and potential delays to the introduction of a property tax, although policymakers reiterated their efforts to keep average home selling prices in check in 2011. In contrast, defensive names, such as telecommunication services, healthcare and consumer staples, while ending in black, lagged the market. China's manufacturing PMI came in at 53.9% in December, marking the 22nd consecutive month of expansion since March 2009, although the number was 1.3 ppts lower than last month. 

Regional markets continued to inch higher but Australia fell lower as Queensland was hit by massive floods which it expected to persist throughout the month.

In Thailand, core infl ation in December came in above expectations at 1.4% y-o-y while headline inflation was benign at 3% y-o-y. This means that the Monetary Policy Committee will most likely raise rates in mid-January.

India's key benchmark indices tumbled after scaling seven week highs early in the week as rising fears of an interest rate hike by the central bank at a policy review meeting scheduled later this month weighed on investor sentiment.

During the last three weeks, December 17th, 2010 to January 7th, 2011, the Latin American markets appreciated by 3.4%. The best performing market was Brazil - the performance was driven by commodities related companies.

The Pakistan stock market swallowed volatility in local politics, the break-up of ruling coalition and the highest profile assassination since Benazir Bhutto to close up 3% last week at 12,389 points level. Major reasons attributed to the rise are the increase in fertilizer prices, rumours of a major oil & gas discovery and increased market participation by local institutional investors. The political noise intensifi ed last week when a key government ally decided to sit on the opposition benches.

Last week the performance of the Greek and Cyprus markets was negative due to renewed fears about the European Bond market and Greece in particular. On the other hand the performance of the Egyptian and Turkish markets was flat to positive.

Region-wise, Latin America was the best performer with Argentina and Jamaica leading, while Africa demonstrated the worst performance, as following the political upheaval in the Ivory Coast, it did not pay a coupon on its eurobond, facing a potential default.

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