czwartek, 3 lutego 2011

Global market overview - issue 2011/4

Last week markets were dominated by one event, the dramatic events that took place in Egypt. The market there fell 16% before closing and surely everybody is watching the developments via the news. 

Equity markets fell sharply on Friday following speculation that the EU is considering a "default by stealth" for Greek sovereign debt by allowing Greece to repurchase its bonds from the European Central Bank at a 25% discount to their nominal value using funds borrowed from the European Financial Stability Fund. This would effectively result in the ECB taking a haircut on Greek sovereign debt rather than external creditors. On the positive side of the ledger, equity mutual funds in the US saw their biggest weekly inflow since May 2009 in the second week of January, according to fi gures from the Investment Company Institute.

Greek and Cyprus markets continued to recover rising by around 3,5%. On the other hand the Turkish stock market was partly hit by the Egyptian crisis losing around 4%.

The China A-share market rebounded this week, with the CSI 300 index up by 1.8%. Telecommunication services and industrials surged by 7.1% and 4.6% respectively. However, banks and property developers underperformed due to the third round of anti-speculative property measures announced on January 27 and the property tax trials which kicked off in Shanghai and Chongqing on January 28.

India Sensex and Nifty declined by 612 points (-3.22%) and 184 points (-3.24%) to close at 18,396 and 5,512 respectively. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) increased the benchmark interest rate to 2 year high and signalled further gains in borrowing costs as it raised the inflation forecast. The RBI lifted the repo rate to 6.5 % from 6.25 % and increased the reverse repo rate to 5.5 % from 5.25 %. The move will buttress the government's efforts to cool inflation after Prime Minister Manmohan Singh unveiled plans to reduce food prices by importing onions from Pakistan and keeping a ban on exports of lentils and edible oils.

The Pakistan benchmark KSE100TM index remained fl at last week at 12,463. The average daily volume fell by 50% to 117mn shares. The monetary policy announcement is due on Saturday 29th where analysts expect another 50bps hike in the policy rate

The Latin American markets depreciated 2.9% last week. Brazil was the worst performer of the region, falling 3.4%, as investors reacted to concerns that the Brazilian government could act to cool the economy by constraining credit growth or reign in infl ation with further interest rate hikes. In Brazil, the stocks that slipped the most were in the infl ation-sensitive construction and homebuilding sectors

The Russian RTS index closed the week fl at, despite a series of negative news stories shaking market sentiment. The beginning of the week was marked by Monday's terrorist attack at Domodedovo airport, which, however, left a relatively minor impact on market performance over the days following the attack. The market was also negatively aff ected by OPEC comments that quotas could be raised, Chinese proposals to fi ght infl ation, disappointing US macro data, as well as the lowering of S&P's credit rating for Japan. The Egyptian turmoil is having a mixed impact on the markets – on one hand, boosting the oil price, which is supportive for Russian and Central Asian equities, while on the other – reducing overall risk appetite, which is negative for the region as a whole.

Source: SFM World Funds

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