czwartek, 10 lutego 2011

Global market overview - issue 2011/5

World stock markets strengthened last week as corporate earnings and manufacturing expansion on both sides of the Atlantic eclipsed unrest in Egypt. 

Stocks in Emerging Europe also rose, with the top performance from Bulgarian SOFIX (+5.2%) which benefi tted from shares in investment holding company Chimimport AD (+9.5%) - the only Bulgarian stock included in the regional gauge SETX (South-Eastern European Traded Index).

The Greek market was up 4% last week on the back of a more positive outlook on the IMF and EU granting an extension on its loans. Turkey, meanwhile, recovered to finish up 5%, despite worries regarding its monetary policy, as confidence rose that a worst-case scenario in Egypt could be avoided. The market in Cyprus was slightly negative.

Strong performances from oil and gas stocks were behind a 2.3% Russian stock market gain over the week. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian equity market outperformed again last week on the back of good corporate news. During the week, the UX index surged 5.9%, but stocks traded on foreign markets underperformed, mainly on the back of a mixed performance in the agriculture sector.

The Egyptian market remained closed for the entire trading week as anti-government protests continued, although it is expected to open next week. Other markets in the region saw panic selling, beginning with heavy sell-offs on the first trading day of the week, including a 5% drop on the S&P Saudi index. But markets managed to subsequently bounce back from weekly lows as investors saw the sell-off as an opportunity to raise their exposure to the market.

Release of PMI numbers from China did not restore investor confidence and Asian countries remained lacklustre while several bourses were closed for Chinese New Year celebrations. The Asean40 Index remained flat, up a mere 0.6% w-o-w, with minimal gains.

In India, the Sensex and Nifty fell over the week, dipping 388 points (-2.11%) and 116 points (-2.11%) to close at 18,008 and 5,396 respectively. For the week ending Jan 21 food Inflation was 17.05% and the fuel price index climbed to 11.61%.

The Pakistan KSE100TM index remained under pressure during the first three trading sessions of the week on the back of pre-emptive selling by local investors, despite the central bank going against expectations and keeping its discount rate unchanged at 14%. Market sentiment improved in the later part of the week on encouraging macro and political news. In its fourth Monetary Policy statement for FY11 the central bank opted to keep its policy rate intact at 14%, citing a fall in government borrowing, a surplus current account balance in 1HFY11 and optimism on the fiscal front. At the same time it raised its inflation forecast to 15-16%, and stressed the need to limit fi scal slippages.

Latin American markets recorded a slight rise over the week, up just 0.4%, amid mixed performance around the region. Peru was the best performer, adding 3.5%, followed by Mexico, which grew 2.6%. Meanwhile, Chilean stocks were up slightly, appreciating 0.3%, but Brazilian stocks, which make up more than two-thirds of the Latin American index, fell 1.3%, despite being buoyed by heavyweight Petrobras which rose 4.1% over the week. Brazil's financial services companies underperformed amid concerns the government could limit credit or impose additional interest rate hikes.

Source: SFM World Funds

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czwartek, 3 lutego 2011

Global market overview - issue 2011/4

Last week markets were dominated by one event, the dramatic events that took place in Egypt. The market there fell 16% before closing and surely everybody is watching the developments via the news. 

Equity markets fell sharply on Friday following speculation that the EU is considering a "default by stealth" for Greek sovereign debt by allowing Greece to repurchase its bonds from the European Central Bank at a 25% discount to their nominal value using funds borrowed from the European Financial Stability Fund. This would effectively result in the ECB taking a haircut on Greek sovereign debt rather than external creditors. On the positive side of the ledger, equity mutual funds in the US saw their biggest weekly inflow since May 2009 in the second week of January, according to fi gures from the Investment Company Institute.

Greek and Cyprus markets continued to recover rising by around 3,5%. On the other hand the Turkish stock market was partly hit by the Egyptian crisis losing around 4%.

The China A-share market rebounded this week, with the CSI 300 index up by 1.8%. Telecommunication services and industrials surged by 7.1% and 4.6% respectively. However, banks and property developers underperformed due to the third round of anti-speculative property measures announced on January 27 and the property tax trials which kicked off in Shanghai and Chongqing on January 28.

India Sensex and Nifty declined by 612 points (-3.22%) and 184 points (-3.24%) to close at 18,396 and 5,512 respectively. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) increased the benchmark interest rate to 2 year high and signalled further gains in borrowing costs as it raised the inflation forecast. The RBI lifted the repo rate to 6.5 % from 6.25 % and increased the reverse repo rate to 5.5 % from 5.25 %. The move will buttress the government's efforts to cool inflation after Prime Minister Manmohan Singh unveiled plans to reduce food prices by importing onions from Pakistan and keeping a ban on exports of lentils and edible oils.

The Pakistan benchmark KSE100TM index remained fl at last week at 12,463. The average daily volume fell by 50% to 117mn shares. The monetary policy announcement is due on Saturday 29th where analysts expect another 50bps hike in the policy rate

The Latin American markets depreciated 2.9% last week. Brazil was the worst performer of the region, falling 3.4%, as investors reacted to concerns that the Brazilian government could act to cool the economy by constraining credit growth or reign in infl ation with further interest rate hikes. In Brazil, the stocks that slipped the most were in the infl ation-sensitive construction and homebuilding sectors

The Russian RTS index closed the week fl at, despite a series of negative news stories shaking market sentiment. The beginning of the week was marked by Monday's terrorist attack at Domodedovo airport, which, however, left a relatively minor impact on market performance over the days following the attack. The market was also negatively aff ected by OPEC comments that quotas could be raised, Chinese proposals to fi ght infl ation, disappointing US macro data, as well as the lowering of S&P's credit rating for Japan. The Egyptian turmoil is having a mixed impact on the markets – on one hand, boosting the oil price, which is supportive for Russian and Central Asian equities, while on the other – reducing overall risk appetite, which is negative for the region as a whole.

Source: SFM World Funds

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